The UK Housing Market Will Bottom When it Bottoms, Not When We Say it Has

by RichardM 7. May 2009 20:35

financial vector graph

I can't believe what I have just read: on the myfinances blog Sarah Routledge writes:

"Buyer interest is rising, and price falls finally appear to be slowing. But property experts are waiting for mortgage lenders to loosen their criteria and agree more loans before announcing the bottom of the market."

Before announcing the bottom of the market, what planet does she live on? She says it like the market won't have bottomed until it the bottom is announced by property experts. That is not how it works. The market bottoms, then it is announced. Let me explain:

Say the lenders loosened their criteria to 2006 levels tomorrow; it would still not cause the market to bottom. There are so many other factors to consider:

For a start the economic outlook, unemployment and job-fears for those in employment are also a major hindrance on transaction levels; people won't be looking for mortgages in sufficient numbers to bottom the market until there is a wider economic recovery.

Secondly, many vendors are still unrealistic, or unwilling to sell for such a massive price drop; they are turning to house swapping sites to avoid the reality of a major price drop in order to sell. Prices will fall until homes become more affordable for first time buyers, and unrealistic vendors will continue to prolong that fall.

When these problems have been addressed the UK housing market will not need any announcement to bottom, it will just happen. Many positive events will converge, and we will see transaction levels increase very quickly; the market will have bottomed.

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House Prices | UK House Prices | UK Housing Market | UK Property

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