Property investment consultancy Assetz have slammed the forecast that UK house prices would fall 9.8% by the end of this year made by the Confederation of British Industry.

Stuart Law, chief executive of Assetz, said: "The CBI’s house price forecast is illogical and cannot possibly be based on justifiable calculations.

"All the major house price indices are now showing consistent month-on-month growth and Assetz House Price Watch, which is based upon the UK’s main five indices, is now showing that house prices are over 1.5% higher than in January this year.

"It would be virtually impossible for house prices to fall by almost 10% in the three months to the end of December and it is hard to imagine how the CBI arrived at this figure, which implies a greater rate of fall than was witnessed even in the state of panic last year.

"More worrying is the fact that this prediction is clearly at odds with the CBI’s own view in their release that the economy as a whole is gradually improving. Random sound bites such as these are unhelpful in this sensitive market which is beginning to find its feet."

Assetz are a bit wrong in their own facts. Yes, all the main indices are currently showing month-on-month and even tri-monthly growth, but there is not only 3 months left. The three most current indices, namely Halifax, Nationwide and the Financial Times are up to the end of August, giving them 4 more monthly releases to end the year. The indices of the Land Registry and the (government) Department of Communities and Local Government, are only up to the end of July, giving them 5 monthly releases to go.

Falls of 2% or more now when -- as Assetz rightly pointed out -- the economy is showing signs of recovery, look highly unlikely. But even though the economic outlook is a lot brighter, unemployment is still rising, foreclosures are still happening, and we aren't out of the woods yet. In fact, house prices are only rising because of big rises in 11% of the country were supply of quality homes is extremely short, prices are still falling everywhere else. If foreclosures should mass or something else should cause supply to increase in those areas, then house price falls will restart anew and 1.6% per month could happen, though even I have to admit it is unlikely.

Liam Bailey is a well known commentator on global property markets, and the director of SEO copywriting services company Write About Property.